How the war affected the real estate market in Ukraine and what to expect in 2023
How the war affected the real estate market in Ukraine

How the war affected the real estate market in Ukraine and what to expect in 2023


The war significantly shattered the real estate market in Ukraine. From February 24, 2022 to January 2023, only 47 thousand apartments and houses were sold.

In the language of analytics, residential real estate sales fell by 46%. However, the industry still managed to survive and is now gradually recovering from the shocks.

Professional realtor Olga Stazhko told how the war affected the real estate market, what buyers need now and what prices to expect in 2023.


Real estate market and war in Ukraine


In the first months of a full-scale war, the real estate market in Ukraine completely stopped. At least some activation began only at the beginning of summer. Basically, people wanted to sell their property rather than buy a new one.

There were two reasons for this:

  • people urgently needed money;
  • some Ukrainians left the country and did not plan to return.

That is why you could see a lot of ads with discounts of 20-30% and even 50%!

By the end of the summer, along with the stabilization of the front and the military successes of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the Ukrainians began to calm down little by little.

Those who held money in February and planned to buy a house decided to invest in real estate. However, the needs of buyers have changed significantly during this time.


What Ukrainians need now


If before the war people willingly bought apartments at the construction stage, now they are afraid of such investments. There are also two main reasons for this:

  • people are afraid that the house will never be completed (for example, due to a missile attack, occupation or bankruptcy of the developer);
  • a huge number of internally displaced persons need housing here and now.


“Therefore, now the most popular option on the market is renovated housing in already commissioned complexes.”


Of course, buyers have become more interested in apartments and houses that are located away from critical infrastructure facilities and are located on low floors.

The area in which housing is located also plays a significant role. Let’s talk about prices.


Real estate prices in Ukraine 2023


First, housing prices vary by region. The Ministry of Finance provides the following statistics:

  • Kharkiv – the price of real estate has decreased on average by UAH 3,000 per square meter.
  • Kyiv — the cost increased by 28% (+13,600 UAH/sq.m.).
  • Odessa — real estate has risen in price by 35% (+13,700 UAH/sq.m.).
  • Chernivtsi — prices increased by 40% (+13,000 UAH/sq.m.).
  • Lviv — housing has risen in price by 42% (+18,700 UAH/sq.m.).
  • Uzhgorod — price tags soared by 51% (+22,700 UAH/sq.m.).


Secondly, it matters whether we are talking about finished housing or new buildings. In 2022, demand for the latter fell by 90–95%. However, the cost of new buildings compared to January last year increased by 40%.

Why? Because during this time the exchange rate has grown, the cost of construction has risen a lot, and builders, who are already insufficient, need to be paid more for their services.


Real estate Development companies cannot make significant discounts because:

  1. people not only cannot financially, but simply do not want to buy new buildings;
  2. a significant reduction in cost is equal to working at a loss.

You can compare the average prices for apartments in new buildings depending on the region:


  • Kyiv region — +32.9% (UAH 31,600/sq.m.).
  • Kyiv — +34.4% (UAH 60,400/sq.m.).
  • Odessa — +48.3% (UAH 40,800/sq.m.).
  • Lviv — +63.1% (UAH 40,800/sq.m.).


Thirdly, do not forget about the seasonal factor. Spring, as a rule, is the most profitable time for the real estate market. Therefore, we can traditionally expect a price increase of 10%.


Ukrainian real estate forecast for 2023


During the war, analysts do not go far in their forecasts. But one trend is obvious – after each massive missile attack on the real estate market, a “micro-fever” begins: buyers hold back funds, and sellers try to increase demand with discounts.

Therefore, the state of the industry will depend primarily on the situation at the front.


“I note that if, with the approach of summer, it will be seen that the war is in its final phase, then the activation of the market can be expected in the fall, – says the realtor.”


The behavior of buyers will also matter – whether they will have the financial ability and desire to buy housing in Ukraine or will they still be afraid to do so.


In general, the full recovery of the real estate market in Ukraine can only be said in a year and a half. And even then, provided that the course of the war will be in our favor.


Many Ukrainians are now trying to buy housing on the secondary market. And there you can see new schemes of scammers who always want to extract money from gullible buyers.


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